Thursday, 21 November 2024

21/11/2024: P12

突然發現這又是一個十年系列。

原來我已經關注種花職棒十年了。以前因為時差看MLB或者NPB比較多,可是2014年的某天有人跟我說CPBLTV剛開始營運不用錢耶,要不要試試看?我就這樣一腳踩進了這個無底深坑。在這裡隨便搜一搜都能看得出我對種花的超高關注,那麼在這之上的國際賽我又怎會錯過呢?

我進坑的那年正好是大王用那支打通任督二脈的三安在U21打敗韓國的那年,次年他又用陽春砲在世大運把韓國打下去。當他說出「希望從我們這個世代開始,就要一直贏韓國,畢竟我們不會比他們差,也不會輸他們」這番豪言的時候多少人笑他不自量力?也就我進坑的時候剛好避過了韓國的黃金期,只要我早一年開始看的話對韓國的印象就要改成哭著說真的好想贏韓國了。多少鄉民都對這個遠鄰咬牙切齒但不能不承認就是打不過呢?

誰都沒想到接下來他們用實在的成績告訴我們韓國不是贏不了的:17經典賽延長賽只輸在對面大檸檬等級的守護神上面、18亞運用業餘隊打贏全職業明星隊、19秀秀三分砲7比0打爛韓國、23亞運一勝一敗,然後這次又閃電戰第二局打下6分奠定勝局。我們真的一直贏韓國也不會怕他們了。不能被打敗的是日本而不是韓國,這個以後有機會再說……說不定幾天後就有機會了。

所以到底是他們變弱了還是台灣變強了啊?是因為徵招不順嗎?但台灣也缺了兩隻王牌啊是因為教練賭台灣不會打軟投、然後又腳麻換慢了嗎?啊不就手上的菜有限總不能叫王牌抓完日本又抓台灣吧?第二局被轟一發但是二出局了想等他吃完這局才搧不行嗎?就算沒有第二轟,台灣不也還是會4:3贏下來嗎?

其實短期賽免不了運氣,而且運氣佔的比重大概比上面的原因加起來都要大。萬一韓國投手對上神威少失投一球,這樣是不是就6分通通不見了?就算他控球不穩也有機會投出好球來啊。當然、贏了還要講運氣這種事大可不必。檢討數據還是有用的,這方面就留給棒版上的各位先進吧,我覺得砲大的總結也蠻簡潔的。我們不妨把眼光拉遠一點,討論那些更長期的因素。

KBO的電子好球帶和彈力球毫無疑問會是被檢討的對象。彈力球的後果大家已經在種花看過一次、也在以前的KBO看過一次了:打者選球變差出去面對高階投手變得毫無還手之力,投手包括那些本來能壓制打者的大量陣亡。這次KBO徵招不順不就是幾個王牌先發通通受傷嗎?打者的力量倒是還不錯,但是那個精美的K/9代表了甚麼相信大家也很清楚。他們習慣了面對已經殆盡的投手,投進來一堆肉包胃口自然就養大。沒想到面對高階投手那些看似肉包的通通是刁鑽的球路,這也揮那也揮,最後通通吃K。

至於電子好球帶……我真的不知道他們是怎麼想的。如果是為了適應國際賽的話再笨的人過了這次P12也知道此路不通。覺得是世界潮流嗎?美國也就在3A試驗,真要拿上大檸檬玩還遙遙無期,真的有必要提早這麼多適應嗎?投打幾乎每一年開季都在適應環境,電子好球帶一球季不能適應非得要提早這麼多練嗎?至於取代主審判決的話,這麼多年不也忍下來了,非得電子好球帶剛出來就趕著用呢?

台灣方面我覺得做對最大的事是就是沒有像韓國那樣做錯一堆事,這樣已經很好了。不需要棒協的指手畫腳,不需要奇怪的異地組訓。一切都讓職業的用職業做法來,這樣才能最大限度發揮出職業球員實力,讓他們專心在球場上爭取好成績。如果說這支隊伍有甚麼做得特別好的話應該就是人和了吧,而且這東西還不能強求。總教練都是看該年有誰被賦閑在家或者二軍的。2015和19的Kaku和紅中不香嗎?Kaku不也被拍到跟球員喝成一片嗎?但這支龍貓軍的向心力確實讓人眼前一亮。

台灣的投打一直都有進步,2019我已經讚過一次了,今年要再讚一次。

打者方面對日本那場全場只吃7K,跟韓國的17K可說是雲泥之別。或許韓媒還能把這推給電子好球帶,可是你看看同組除了台灣有誰沒被K得滿頭包的?龍貓是以球棒控制力為準來組隊,可是驢牽到羅馬還是驢啊。那些打者平時我們在種花可看得多了,怎不見他們把洋將打得乒乒乓乓的?

咳咳。只能說毫無抵抗力和爆打對面還是有所差距的,去年亞冠也是如此。明明大家安打數差不多分數卻是一面倒的被壓過去,欠的就是長打啊。種花隊對上其他隊的高階投手的結果也差不多,韓國的牛棚沒有讓台灣再越雷池、多明尼加的中職洋將也讓台灣差點吃上鍋貼。對上這些投手我們現在能做到不被屠殺還偶有佳作已經很好了,不能期待他們真的能成長到能隨便虐爆高階投手。

投手的話不說老虎的無安打表現,那個鐵牛棚也讓人放心。如果2019年大家的印象還是「原來他們不會像在中職那樣被殺爆」的話,這次就是「原來他們國際賽這麼難打」。這個可是種花的特色了,投打高度互相熟悉的情況下投手都會磨練出一些就算看很多遍都打不到的球路。這些球路熟悉了也打不好,何況是初見的國際賽打者呢?在種花強度進一步提升後,我們發現這些種花投手終於可以跟高階打者一拼了。

台日韓三隊是世界上除了美國以外唯三擁有高度商業化國內聯賽的隊伍。甚麼古巴聯、獨聯、墨聯看著隊多人多可是用金錢衡量的話其實不怎樣。高度商業化帶來的就是各種先進觀念、運動科學和競爭。適逢台灣喜迎大巨蛋觀眾持續上升,其職業化程度也應該持續向上,2019和這次P12都反映了其進步。日本也是一樣的,比如說聯盟先發直球均速這十年從141升到146,還有從打小球變成飛球革命等都是很好的例子。只有韓國一言難盡,老是搞些怪招出來絆倒自己。不過這是我樂見的就是,呵呵。

抱歉我開始有點語無倫次了。不過這也難怪,多日高強度看球兼賽前賽後新聞真的很累,我都放棄看早場了……甚麼,你說我在打早場的時候發文?才沒這回事(望

嘛。與其分析一堆利多然後輸掉我還是希望可以打得莫名奇妙起贏球,畢竟比賽就是結果論呢。希望種花隊可以讓我在東蛋再感動一次吧(感動兩次、三次四次也可以的,我受得住),種花隊加油!

Monday, 18 November 2024

Simon Marais 2024 (1?)

Back in early October I was already looking forward to the tournament, and on 12th October I reached the official site for the problems.

But no, nothing was on the site.

I waited and waited. Last year I posted my analysis on 20th October assuming that the problem came up a few days prior. I checked the official site and there is no updates other than saying that "it will be held on Oct 12", not even an update that concludes the event. I checked AoPS, no one posted there as well. The social media has been dead since 2023.

It took me a whole month before I finally get my hands on the problems and not even a full set. Someone shared paper A and B assuming the participant was in the east, but I don't see paper C around yet. How hard is it to update your site and release the problems to the public? That's just another disappointment along the years.

I am already travelling partially for the sake of baseball. That's story for another day for sure, but let us focus on these problems first. Since I don't have the luxury spending big chunk of time to solve these problems, my comments tend to be shorter this time.

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A1. I think I have accepted Q1 of this difficulty somehow. WLOG assume $a\geq b \geq c$, then $[a] \geq [b] \geq [c]$. Write $[a] = [c] + k$ for some integer $k$ then you find that $[c](a-[a]) \geq [c]([b]-[c])$ which gives $[b] = [c]$. Similarly $[a] = [b]$ which obviously $a=b=c$. AoPS provided another neat solution too: notice that $\frac{a}{[b]} = \frac{c}{[c]} \geq 1$ giving $[a] \geq [b]$, but circular argument gives $[a] = [b] = [c]$.

A2. The general solution is less obvious than some of the previous Q2s, but the parameter of 2024 is so low that allowed some kind of exhaustion if candidates wish to spend 2 hours on this question. This is a replicate of JBMO2022 Q4 and if you don't want spoilers -- think about the ternary representation.

A3. err...standard analysis assignment? Think about how $\frac{1+na}{1+nb} \to \frac{a}{b}$ which gives you an explicit formula for $m(a,b)$. Once you have that, you can lower bound $n$ in terms of $W$ and $m(a,b)$.

But more importantly, you can do everything without using any abstract idea because intuitive simple parameter testing would give a clear answer as well. No trap and straightforward. Is this really Q3?

A4. Oh...finally a number theory question, but it is one that is insta-killable if you know something or immediately a big fat zero if you don't. This is also why competitions like Putnam doesn't make these questions often -- it simply is a skill check more than anything. And for that reason, I think it is quite dumb to have it here.

Prime numbers...what could be the theory behind other than the prime number theorem? Note that you want a lower bound of density (not the average density), but this is 'easy' if you have seen that before.

That says, you can expect the chance to be lower bounded by $O(1/ \log s_d)$, and since $s_d \leq d^2$ you know the summation diverges. The fact that you need an accurate bound like $O(1/\log p)$ instead of Bertland's postulate shows that A4 really is a dumb question checking your knowledge on PNT.

Please don't do it again.

B1. Typical 'guessing game'. Partition into 12, 34 and 56 and you test 12 and 34. If it reveals 00/02/20 this is over. Otherwise you know a coin is in each of two of the pairs. Then you test a single box by choosing an empty box from the empty pair.

e.g. I know a coin is in 12 and a coin is in 34. On the third guess I would try 15 -- if it gives 1 coin then I know box 1 contains a coin, if it gives 0 coins then I know box 2 contains a coin. Then I try 35 for the same reason.

And why is 4 guesses the minimal? Well there are 15 possibilities. Although in theory 3 guesses gives 3^3 outcomes there aren't that many actually because once you get "2 coins" the guess is over, so it does not distinguish as much.

B2. Try the inverval $x\in (0,1)$ first. By continuity you will notice that they are all determined by the value of $f(0)$ - a simple, single parameter function. Keep on doing that for $x \in (-1,0)$, then $f(-1)$ and $f(0)$, then $(-\infty, -1)$ and $(1,\infty)$. Again routine.

B3. Duality and projective space! This is on the borderline of skill check like A4 because the construction if there is one, should not be too exotic. 

We know that there is a canonical bijection between lines and points in RP2, but Euclidean planes do not contain points/lines at infinity that the duality fails. However this question isn't really asking for duality -- we only need a correspondence that works for distinct non-parallel lines, and that's the technical difference to take care of.

B4. Oooof, such a nicely formulated problem surrounding symmetric polynomials yet so horrifying to look at. Not going to try this.

*

Problems appears to be more polarized: some are clearly high school (if not junior) level MO problems, but some are extremely specific problems at senior undergrad level. Is that somewhat expected? Probably. Does that make the tournament more Putnam like? Hell no.

Guess I will write more about problems this year when I have my hands on paper C, or when they finally decided to release the problems and answers officially. See you ^.<

Friday, 1 November 2024

1/11/2024: Lv19 and more


Why do you need...?

Exactly what I thought when I was hanging with 5% HP with the last stream coming on Paranoia Revolution CSP.

Or Valkyrie Dimension CSP.

Or Hou CSP.

And then I proceeded to fail all of them again and again.

Of course Lv19s are gonna be like that, no?

I wrote an analysis on a personally rated passing difficulty across Lv18 and compared that against 3IC's scoring difficulty rating, but scrapped the whole thing because the 'personally rated' thing is a bit too stupid, but allow me to simplify the idea here: there is a clear pattern that separates Lv18 and Lv19.

Let us ignore anything below 18.8 that are clearly not 19 at the broadest sense, and anything above 19.2 for the same reason. Among those marginal charts, they are classified Lv19 only if they have a significant, Lv19 worth gimmick that almost surely blocks most players away.

Max 360, Volaquas, Egoism 440 all contain hyper-long streams at high BPM (BPM210+ 1/4 equivalent). Paranoia Revolution contains (twists and) vertical steps including jumps (from the X3 perspective those vertical steps are unique to this level, less so these days but still). Valkyrie dimension contains a BPM240(480) long stream on top of extreme change in speed.

On the other hand, top Lv18 are mostly Lv18 content but strengthened. Can you find anywhere a hyper-speed long streams like those Lv19s? Not really. IX, Max Period and Avengers are the closest and were considered some of the top Lv18 of their respective time, yet they were never considered Lv19. Beach Side Bunny on the other hand, has very long stream but it simply isn't fast enough (BPM153).

In fact, most top Lv18s consist of segments of broken streams in 3 or 5. That includes Endymion, New Millennium, Possession (20th mix) and The World Ends Now.

What about hard to read charts? Hou, Neutrino and Over the Period in particular -- but they are "easy" without speed change (vs VD csp, or Hou Csp for example) cf. hard to read Lv19s are tough even without speed change.

We ignored Dead End and Pluto the First who are clearly not 18.8+ in terms of passing difficulty, but there is still one left: Linduwum. Together with New Millennium, this is actually the new category of super hyper BPM charts (BPM240+) that we can't separate between Lv18 and 19. These two are both regarded at 18.9 if not 18.99, but what does it take for a similar chart to become Lv19 instead? We will see...

But yeah, I just wanted to celebrate the clear of Paranoia Revolution and Volaquas here.

Paranoia Revolution does not actually feels like Lv19 with its gimmick much less gimmicky in the 2024 environment and is much easier by ignoring a few notes intentionally (e.g. FA+steps @ 62combo and ↑↓s @416 combo). To me it really feels like a 18.99 more than a 19. That is, unless actual 19 is lower...but that's a topic for another day.

For Volaquas, the point is not only to survive that stream, but to fill the health bar beforehand. And what's before the long stream? Two 1/3 streams, the first one very smooth and the second one filled with jumps. Sounds familiar right? The same pattern appeared in many other charts like Hou and Varja. Hou is of course Lv19 but I always wonder why Varja isn't even 18.8. At the end of the day those 1/3s aren't real threats and the only reason for Volaquas to be Lv19 is the 9 seconds long BPM212 1/4 stream.

Clearing Lv19 has long been a dream since 2019, and it's finally here. But when the time arrives there is no overwhelming joy, everything feels so natural to me because the progress is huge despite the lack of Lv19 clears.

Like, would you imagine a 850k on Possession 20th mix casually back in the days? Absolutely not. Shock arrow are much better read in 2024 than in 2019 where passing Megalovania is painfully hard. 

Or like getting 800k on A4A csp or full comboing Pluto csp? With the help of constant and higher speed (oh yeah I am doing 480boost again) charts are clearer than ever.

Getting the first two Lv19 clears is just the beginning and I will not stop here (`・ω・´)