Wednesday, 12 August 2026

世界觀設定與Meta演化論(上): 虛構沙盤裡的社會重塑

作為一個設定控,理解一個世界觀的底層根源永遠是個迷人的課題。這個世界為甚麼會變成這個樣子呢?當你投入一個設定時,有沒有想過這個設定會不會動搖大世界樣式的根源呢?縱向地看的話這個世界是怎樣才會演變成這樣子呢?或者說,甚麼才是合理的演變呢?

以現實作品舉例的話不妨思考一下一九八四的世界線。誠然,在奧威爾動筆的時候二戰才剛結束,就算讓他看到鐵幕的開始,推導出之後的歷史並非易事。先假設一九八四真的發生在二戰延續的世界線,亦即二戰完結的一九四五年的三十九年後(亦即時間點本身是沒有被修改的話),世界有沒有可能透過一系列事件演變成書中一九八四的樣子呢?如果有,書中所述的步驟,比如侵略和核戰,是充分而必需的嗎?有沒有其他更關鍵的必經步驟?

咳咳、扯遠了。

現實的歷史相當複雜、充滿人性和不確定性。討論這類問題總是免不了往細節裡問,每次找出破綻又只能對框架作出修補,框架越來越臃腫,卻沒法歸納出甚麼有用的東西來。同樣的問題,在小說世界就簡單多了。比如說一九八四的世界觀,如果對地理邊界的合理性問太多的話,人家一句就能堵死你:你怎樣知道老大哥給你的資訊是真確的呢?

這篇雜談其實源自我無聊點開的網文<<我的設定在你之上>>,一本寫得不錯的縫合怪,至少玩弄設定這點很吸引我。

簡單來說,主角的面板外掛讓他有能力穿梭不同「版本」。所謂版本就是世界的環境設定--我稱之為meta,而版本和版本之間也許是滄海桑田、也許是甚麼大災變、抑或是長年累月的自然演化,總之meta完全不同,所能用的能力體系也不同。在掛逼加持下主角可以在同一時間點裡切換不同meta下收集下來的能力。每個版本的能力都有其獨到之處,舊世代的數值碾壓、新世代的科技碾壓,每次總有一款適合對手,想不到吧?

小說目前已披露的「版本」有四個。餘燼神代、魔藥時代、超能時代、空洞時代。

「餘燼神代」是一個神明與凡人爭奪極度稀缺「火種」的末法時期,力量強大卻不可再生,社會被圈養成神權割據的死水;「魔藥時代」則是神代遺留的力量殘渣化為了需要配方調製的「序列」,造就了由秘密組織和王權壟斷晉升資源的寡頭社會;到了「超能時代」,神秘學被徹底否定,力量變成了由中央大數據分配的「算力」超能力,世界化為被財閥極權管控的賽博龐克都市;最後是算力網路崩潰後的「空洞時代」,天空被撕裂並降下災厄,倖存者只能在廢土上收集「以太」,靠著與舊時代殘存意識簽訂契約,在傭兵公會的體系下拼死求生。

之所以說縫合怪,是因為這些時代的設定都是致敬(?)其他作品而來的。餘燼來自魂系設定、魔藥的序列來自詭秘之主、超能時代頂點是Lv.5的話當然是魔禁。至於空洞時代,那不是尊貴的米遊嗎?

但是致敬歸致敬,我更在意的是裡面呈現的科技水平和社會結構--這些都是致敬對象不會重點描寫的。為甚麼這種meta就要配搭這個社會結構,而不會是其他的呢?

我把這個問題丟給了AI:我把魔藥世代的設定寫了出來,讓它把科技水平和社會結構猜出來,回答的正是維多利亞式貴族寡頭與蒸汽龐克社會,與書中的設定幾乎一致!當然其中一個解釋是,AI早就知道致敬對象。如果致敬對象的設定是正解的話,那麼按著致敬對象的設定來回答就好了。所以為甚麼致敬對象的設定是合理的呢?

背後道理並不難懂:社會是按著需求而建立運作的。在神權社會裡,最重要的是進行宗教儀式的場所;在祭祀社會裡,最重要的是祭壇;在農耕社會裡,最重要的是水源。像玩天際線(Skyline)那樣把一個個設施按需求拼上去,那這裡離實際社會也就不遠了。同樣道理,在異世界就更簡單,因為有了壓倒性的基本需求--力量。超凡力量的獲取門檻與稀缺性,直接決定了該時代的社會階級與經濟分配模式。

以小說中的魔藥時代為例子好了。AI給出的答案是甚麼呢?維多利亞時代、蒸氣龐克、社會秘黨,而這恰好是書中的設定。魔藥的序列被大勢力壟斷(或者可以說壟斷序列者成了大勢力)、其中一條序列甚至由王室持有。外面表面上神代消亡人類以理性自力更生而出現工業化和工業社會,然而暗地裡卻到處都是非自然力量。畢竟魔藥體系的核心在於「配方」與「超凡材料」,這就等同於早期的專利與知識產權壟斷。既然上位者掌握了技術知識和材料產地,他們自然會築起高牆形成階級,嚴格限制晉升途徑來維持剝削。這種表面文明優雅、暗地裡階級森嚴且充滿血腥積累的氛圍,完美契合了掌控生產資料來統治下層的經濟學邏輯。

又或者餘燼神代應該是怎樣的呢?在這個時代,「火種」是不可再生的絕對資源。當資源極度稀缺且無法透過生產增加時,社會就必然是一場零和博弈。高高在上的神明不可能把珍貴的火種分給世人。反而用火種的力量操弄著世人。他們只能像螻蟻一樣聚集在神明的領域之內,依靠神明無意識的「賜福與詛咒」苟延殘喘。外面的世界是致死的廢土,貿易與交流幾乎不存在,科技樹也因為過度依賴神力而徹底畸形。這造就了極度中心化、沒有流動性的神權社會,靠著火種強行維持著,直到薪火徹底耗盡。當然,小說裡並未完整敘述這個時代的結局,所以最後一句是我猜的。

超能時代雖然參考的是魔禁,但正常人動腦想一想就知道這種設定下社會必然會比魔禁中殘酷得多。……(解釋時代設定)。當然,你也可以說魔禁是超能者的視角,超能者在一座服務超能者的都市裡吃香不是必然的嗎?

空洞時代就……咳咳,玩過米遊的應該已經都明白了。

當然,像<<設定>>這種直接刪檔重置的玩法並不常見。首先是要有橫跨幾個世代的敘事,那幾乎已經將作品鎖死在穿越、面板等設定上。穿越不同世界的萬界系統很多,在同一世界、還要是同一條時間線上反覆橫跳則幾乎沒有。祖父悖論要怎樣解決?把種種問題用設定解決,剩下的唯一解差不多就是這部小說。

再說「力量」根源本身的改變就是非常反常的一件事。比較常見的原因是「力量」的根源徹底耗盡,像是餘燼神代失去火種的神明,又或者現實中失去錫供應的青銅文明,又或者「力量」隨科技進步進行範式轉移。在人和傳承(至少在可傳承的東西,比如非壟斷性的科技、知識上)沒有斷絕下,光是要阻止主流「力量」進步就不容易了,何況是徹底推翻舊有「力量」系統呢?

比如說哈利的世界。

我已經在很多地方講過哈利世界的漏洞了。比如課綱和考試,比如巫師界對人類的理解。最近我又在聊天模型中問出了一個。你有想過英國至少住了多少巫師才能維持書中的描述嗎?羅琳隨口說的是三千人,但你看看斜角巷和活米村那麼多高度細分的專賣店,雖然有學生這個穩定的需求,但真的每家店都是靠學生才不會餓死嗎?學校每年這麼多新生,需要多少人口才有這個出生率啊?書裡有提過為魔法部工作的公務員至少一千人,要多大人口才能養活一千個公務員?如果這些還不夠,那你想想英國和愛爾蘭有13支職業魁地奇球隊,是不是要有百萬之數的人口才能支撐呢?嘴硬一點可以說冰島也有足球聯賽啊。可是冰島能養起五萬人的大球場(魁地奇世界盃)嗎?

……羅琳承認過她的數學不怎樣,但差兩個零也太過份了吧。

如果不是修仙那樣靈(魔)力衰竭,那又會是甚麼原因呢?

回到正題,哈利的世界正是「力量」沒有進步的世界觀--甚至有時還在退步。如果要從書中尋找答案的話,這個問題其實比人口問題簡單得多。

簡單來說,meta一直在變,卻始終沒有讓魔法一直進步的動力。或者說,那些魔法的進步的方向一直都不是我們想象中的進步。

霍格華茲創校的四巨頭世代,那是一個蠻荒拓荒期。當時沒有《保密法》,巫師與麻瓜混居,生存環境極端且狂野。這個時代主打天生神力,沒有標準化的魔法,全靠天才巫師自己手搓出來。到底要多大的人口基數、怎麼樣的運氣才能讓巫師界生出四巨頭還能聚在一起把霍格華茲給生出來呢?現在已經無證可考了。

到了中間沒有詳細描寫的空白世代,麻瓜的獵巫運動達到巔峰,迫使魔法界在1692年簽署了《保密法》並全面轉入地下。到底是怎樣無能的政府才會把保密的責任全數下放到每一個巫師身上呢?反正這逼使巫師的行為模式徹底改變,從此從人類眼中消失。那些抹除和無痕伸展(先不算九又四分三月台,那明顯是十九世紀才有的)的魔法,是這個時期發展出來的,還是以前就有了?如果是前者,那這也算是個進步吧。

之後是一二戰時期的黑魔王世代。東躲西藏的巫師們實力有進步了嗎?看起來是沒有。當保密法和保密手段變得成熟,巫師們不再需要因為麻瓜而擔驚受怕。但當黑魔王這種真正的危機到來時,一般的巫師就像待宰羔羊一樣,潰敗的魔法部就是最好的證明。說好的拿五條O才能當的傲羅呢?天才們的的確很強,但那很明顯沒有成體系地傳承下去。

最後是哈利波特身處的和平世代。OWLs好像從十九世紀就有了(話雖如此,這考試總不能比普魯士的軍事化教育早吧),但其教育水平是否一直在往下走呢?至少我們看到黑魔化防禦術被閹割得不成模樣,惡作劇商店賣帶有(OWLs程度的)鐵甲咒的防具居然成了暢銷品,去去武器走居然成了標準的攻擊咒語。就算不算哈利六七年級時學校被黑魔王爪牙亂搞的時代,這群巫師和這個體制似乎就沒想過要進步。

吃的找家庭小精靈,住可以霸佔人類房子,一切都能用魔法解決。沒錯他們還是會有慾望也有需求(比如躲避人類),但是能發明一個魔法能解決的東西絕不會去發明一個體系,最好弄個天才出來把一切擺平就好。從初代四巨頭、到實施保密法的巫師(不覺得這幫人其實是隱形英雄嗎?)、到對抗黑魔王的老鄧、再到「那個男孩」。凡事依賴個人而缺乏體系,這才是一個主流「力量」停滯不前的根源。

每次想到這裡都不禁為這些巫師們捏一把汗,這些巫師真的有能力跟持續進步的人類(以保密法的形式)共存嗎?真的每一次都有人出來救世嗎?如果保密法失效,在2026年的網絡世界下還有可能把魔法的痕跡抹除嗎?這才是巫師界的未來的大危機,至於妙麗弄的那個甚麼家庭小精靈保護協會還是算了吧。

講了兩個虛構的例子,那現實又有沒有可能用這種框架去理解呢?

答案當然是有……

(續)

Wednesday, 22 July 2026

IMO 2026 quick thoughts

Wow hello it's time for another year of IMO review. I even didn't realize it is mid-July instead of early August somehow with all the workload in reality where solving math problem is actually more of a relief for me.

As usual, this is a quick attempt on the questions with my thoughts and insights where I didn't try them under formal time limit. I would also feed them to mainstream AI models as a cross section study of AI capabilities. Let's go!

Q1. Wow a question on lcm and gcd! One of my favourite lemma, as I wrote a whole entry about it in 2013, is $mn = [m,n](m,n)$ where $[m,n]$ stands for lcm and $(m,n)$ stands for gcd.

We are replacing $m,n$ by $(m,n)$ and $[m,n]/(m,n)$ this time, so not quite the application of that lemma yet the direction is clear -- the way the question is formulated screamed for specific approaches.

When they asked for finite termination, this is asking for a metric that is strictly monotone upon the operation. Is there any metric better than products of all numbers?

Notice that every operation either (1) turns a number into 1 (when $(m,n)=1$) or (2) decreases the product (when $(m,n)>1$). Since the number count and the product are both finite this is done.

They also asked for the final number standing is fixed given the starting parameters. This is to find an invariant. To this end we look at the prime powers of each number -- i.e. we look at $v_p()$ of the 2026 numbers. We are sending $v_p(m), v_p(n)$ to $\min (v_p(m), v_p(n))$ and $\max (v_p(m), v_p(n)) - \min (v_p(m), v_p(n))$. But wait! This is the operation in Euclidean algorithm! And what's invariant? The gcd across all prime exponents.

When there is one number above 1 left, it must take all the prime powers (the prime powers of all the rest are zero -- think about how Euclidean algorithm works a step further to turn the two numbers $(m,n)$ and zero). Since the question does not ask to determine $M$ we don't even need to write it down! (But you can write it down right?)

Q2. Oh coordinate geometry. Not my taste and probably won't be able to brute force it under exam environment. When I checked on AoPS, it seems like this question is relatively hard as Q2 and have deep relation to projective geometry? Interesting.

Q3. While Q2 is surprisingly difficult (average score of 1.6), Q3 is actually relatively easy. In fact, one very rare combinatorics Q3/6 that I solved without trying hard.

It boils down to the essence of equilibrium where it is reached only when you make a move that opponent's move is indifferent. In this case, indifference means even by not cutting the rod. Technically you can't do that given the rules but it is always possible to cut infinitesimally small portions.

First a simple note: when the cut is done, it is clear that player A will always take the 1st, 3rd, 5th... largest portions and B will take the rest. We are therefore minmaxing the total length of the odd ordered pieces.

Consider the case $n=1$ where player A makes a cut then player B makes a cut. Where would player A choose? The answer is to cut the rod into 1/3 and 2/3 and the claim is A will be claiming 2/3 of the rod.

Case 1: If player B cuts on the 1/3 portion then A can simply take the 2/3 portion and done.

Case 2: If player B cuts on the 2/3 portion into $x, 2/3-x$ then either portion will be at least 1/3. Take the larger one so that B will take 1/3, and you will take the rest for 2/3.

The key is to realize that "cutting the 1/3 portion" has the same minmax result compared to "cutting the 2/3 portion". For case 2 above A is guaranteed to have 2/3, no more, no less. It sounds like A would get more than 2/3 in case 1 but not really if B cuts an infinitesimally small piece on the 1/3 portion leaving A with $2/3 + \varepsilon$ in total. It is easy to show that 1/3 is the sweet spot making the two cases indifferent.

Can we generalize this? Absolutely. The first cut would divide the rod into $\alpha < 1-\alpha$ such that if you don't break the $1-\alpha$ portion A will take the whole portion, with $1-\alpha$ being the part A can always get regardless of B's choice. 

With the first cut being made, this forces B's first cut to land on the $1-\alpha$ portion -- and the best he can do is to split the portion into 2 equal parts or else A would claim the larger part. How can we guarantee that he won't make multiple cuts on this portion? Again, indifference -- divide the smaller portion in a way such that making multiple cuts on the already halved $1-\alpha$ portion is equivalent to making cuts on smaller portions. A can simply make a $(1-\alpha)/2$ portion out of the $\alpha$ portion which is as much as the halved $(1-\alpha)$ portion, and so on. That gives a geometric series of division, foul proof and hence optimal.

Do you realize the solution already? Once you write down the partition the rest of the proof is easy case by case argument.

One question I really like, probably very much to my taste although students think otherwise as reflected by the average score of 0.58.

Q4. Another game? 

At first I was thinking about countability argument like is there a way to iterate all rational angle, but if they asks for the largest possible set of angle why not just $\mathbb{Q}[\pi]$? Why not $\mathbb{Q}[\pi, \sqrt{2}]$? ...then you know this isn't the way to go.

It reduces to something very simple: it only works it integral divisions of 180 degrees where you can divide the angle $k \theta$ into lower multiples of $\theta$ and there is no stopping it. If the initial triangle contain no such angle you can create that by dividing the 180 degree angle. On the other hand it is easy to prove that if a triangle contains no integral multiple of $\theta$ then there is no move that grants you a win within a single move, then induction does the job. Do you realize what is needed for the inductive step? External angle of triangle! This is such cute geometry trick when you don't have to summon huge block of geometry argument like Q2.

Q5. Functional inequality! Always nice to have them. The more complicated it looks, the more important it is to find the right substitution to draw useful information out of it. The given relation involves variable with and without passing into the function $f$, so the natural approach is to substitute $(x,y)\mapsto (f(x),x)$ so find the relation between $x$ and $f(x)$: $f(f(x)) = 2f(x) - x$.

A linear relation!

That screams a simple linear function being the sole answer, although there is a lot to do before we can reach that conclusion. The fact that recurred linear function is also linear with the sequence of $f^n$ being arithmetic themselves is also covered in another entry, this time dating back to 2011 (probably not worthy for a read but yeah). 

By induction we have $f^n(x) = nf(x) - (n-1)x$, showing that $f(x)\geq x$ for all $x$ by taking $x\to \infty$. The rest is probably the hardest -- to argue $f(x)-x = g(x)$ is constant by equating $g(x)$ and $g(y)$ using the given inequality involving quadratic mean. Perhaps I can do it given the time, but I didn't spend too much time thinking into it.

Q6. A NT Q6 is always the ultimate thriller like 1988 Q6, and this one is of no difference. What an elegant formulation.

At first, I even struggle to come up with a single example where the sequence isn't simple arithmetic. I was trying larger numbers with no luck, before I finally ran into $a_1 = 15$. Then I ran into another problem: isn't it strictly arithmetic after a while, and if that was true the demanded statement is false right?!?

Well no. The sequence starting from 15 looks like 15, 18, 20, 24, 30, 36, 40, 42, 45, 48,... with an increment of 30 and period 8.

Think it this way. $a_2-a_1$ must be the smallest prime factor of $a_1$ denoted $p$. The sequence of $(a_1 + (n-1)p)$ clearly satisfies the gcd requirement, and it only fails only when an increment below $p$ somehow satisfies the gcd requirement as well. For example when $a_1 =15$ you know $a_2 = a_1+3$, but somehow an increment of 2 worked for $a_3$ breaking the pattern. It is clear that it's the small prime that matters.

That is, we claim that only prime factors at most $a_1$ would matter. Something is wrong if you have an increment that is bigger the products of these smaller primes. With that you can argue periodicity by finiteness (of course we need to be careful to show that $a_1$ is mod-repeated in the sequence).

The details aren't precisely straightforward -- of course that should be the case considering how this is Q6 not Q3 or Q5. I don't think I can write a complete proof under exam environment either. The average score of 0.38 defends the family of NT Q6 on the harder end among boss questions, although I feel like 1 or 2 points based on nature of increments shouldn't be hard.

*

How do I feel about the questions this year? It feels strangely familiar.

If we ignore the geometry question, every single question points to something familiar on my side directly applicable towards the intended solution. Writing the full proof is one thing, but being able to analyze the question without wasting time on wrong directions would be a huge bless after all. Although there's also a bad side for being familiar with the questions -- I can't really evaluate the difficulty of these questions accurately. With that being said, average score shows that the difficulty this year is surely not out of the blue.

As for AI models, it is not surprising that GPT 5.6 Sol has managed to solve it all. When someone like me managed to get all directions correct easily it is madness to expect difficulty for leading models to do the same.

...leading thinking models only, of course.

It is still far away for mid level LLMs to perform up to that level. GPT Terra had problem from Q3, Grok can't even solve Q1 properly. Our poor follow Gemini Pro 3.1 managed to solve Q1-4 properly, completely messed up Q5 but solved Q6 with minor mistakes.

It has been a spectacular year of AI progress, so much to the point it becomes fearsome. But for now, there is no better timing to start embrace the use of AI to relief us from the calculation. It has been shown that once we get the direction right, AI can do the rest for us.

Let's meet again in 2027.