Monday, 10 November 2025

9/11/2025: 吱爪藍道大混戰

樂天吱以4:1擊敗中信爪贏下2025台灣大賽。

雖然我本人一直有關注棒球,但我還真沒寫多少棒球相關的文章在這裡。也就2019和24的P12、2023的WBC和2019的TS而已。我以為我在CPBLTV草創期(2014-)寫了一堆,結果是沒有嗎。

不過怎樣也好,這是桃猿六年以來第一次奪冠,而且比賽過程精彩絕倫,怎樣也值得慶祝留念一下。要留念還有一個更深層次的原因,那就是這支冠軍隊伍有點過去六年五冠Lamigo的味道。

很多人對吱吱的印象只剩下四割大王那個彈力球年代,也就是那個狂轟濫炸,沒輸十分都覺得有希望追回來的年代。可是別忘了更早時期時球隊不是這樣的。正如我足球挑上車路士是因為喜歡當年的一比零主義一樣,我挑上Lamigo同樣是因為其一比零主義一樣。棒球當然不太可能一直一比零,但是用幾把大鎖在七八九局把領先牢牢鎖住也是同一原理。那時的Lamigo擁有救援王米吉亞,有出道即巔峰(出賽場次上)的香腸還有Boyo,這種投手上的安心感是一比零主義所追求的。

來到2025,我們發現川岸強教練治下的牛棚投手一個比一個強。這已經不是今年才有的事了,去年P12的種花鐵牛棚我吱實在功不可沒。你以為P12那批投手倒光就沒戲了嗎?沒想到陳陳大丈夫上演老將不死,不但沒有受國際賽影響球速還持續進化,今年投出0字開頭WHIP的鬼神成績;R豪是回歸正常水準,但有不算季末疲勞的話整季ERA可能只有0.4的小朱頂上。就算牛棚要吃到三四局,賴胤豪、呂寶、R豪等就算不是大魔神也還是值得信賴的等級。今年例行賽我吱一分差勝率為七成,誇張到把另外五隊的一分差勝率打成五成以下,靠的就是這鐵到不行的牛棚。

更可怕的是,牛棚在例行賽末段本來累得東歪西倒,來到季後賽居然又回春了。莊77從12強回來以後就沒好過,現在居然能150連發,在速球夠強的掩護下讓他屢屢下莊,甚至只在牛棚一直熱身都能為隊友上buff;賴胤豪則是152、153連發,這好像也是前所未見的數字吧?

當然,要兌換牛棚壓制力的前提是有個能吃長局數的的洋投在前面頂著。吱吱受制於老虎狀態不佳、克羿等新一代土投未成熟,加上三號洋投不行,季賽就算有發揮也是有一場沒一場。來到季後賽就不同了,威能帝和魔神樂齊齊特攻,就問你怕不怕?喵喵也還好,爪爪現在看到我吱的洋投怕是要有ptsd了。十年前有明星中零日無安打,十年後有二洋投風火輪,種花始終還是那個得洋投者得天下的聯盟。

甚麼?你說對面的羅戈李博登也很厲害?

那就比拼拼看看誰比較肯為球隊粉身碎骨吧。

也許是劉家和紅中留下來的風氣加上一代接一代的精神傳承,我總覺得我吱的凝聚力是數一數二好的。球員之間的互動,會互相為其他球員發聲(比如超級喜歡怒摔頭盔),甚至不少洋將也能快速融入,甚至成為球隊氛圍的一部分,這也是他們肯在季後賽拼命的重要原因。你以為威能帝挑戰賽中1日關門是新鮮事嗎?明星當時也是1467,而且別忘了同場風火輪還有感情好到父子檔一起來台的蘭斯佛(直到他被紅中玩壞丟掉)。這裡不是世界大賽,洋將未必有足夠動機為了冠軍而燃燒,甚至把自己的潛力一併燒掉。我吱能持續吸引和養出這種洋將,對球隊戰績實在功不可沒。

一日球迷看到這裡,大概覺得我吱這次奪冠實屬理所當然、水到渠成對吧?

不是喔,不是這樣喔。

挑戰賽威能帝G2被打爆退場,G4九局下面對守護神(?)落後三分,兩個都是基本可以打包回家的局面;台灣大賽被爪爪以洋投碰洋投每場都鎖個六七局,G2在2:1領先下要面對無人出局滿壘的死局,G5打到七局還被對面雙洋投鎖到落後四分。偏偏每次我吱都能過關直至奪冠,機率之低令人咋舌,用另一個說法則是彰顯出這隊強勁的實力和打不死的精神。有了這些大場面加持,本來每年都有一個的冠軍含金量立刻拔高,我想這會成為種花球迷心中的經典之一吧。

嘛,這篇其實應該早在一星期前剛打完就發出來的,卻因種種原因拖到現在。這一星期的時間裡發生了足以讓種花球迷徹底忘記台灣大賽的系列賽,也就是道奇對藍鳥的頂上對決。G3十八局和兩位長中繼燃盡的表現、G6那球卡死在縫上的二壘安打、G7的陽春砲連發加鎖血山本……奇跡多得像是喝水一樣,就連MLB官網的win probability都在不停翻轉,不讓讓人懷疑到底這些低概率事件是真的低概率,還是只要球員夠強張力夠高就會發生?

嘛,我感覺兩邊都是。

一個低概率的事件要發生首先要有合適的前置條件,還要在投打對決和攻守對決出現指定的結果才行。前置條件可以泛指任何應該決定的條件,小至投手用球數、該局分數,大至比賽勝負都包括在內。季後賽最特別的一點就是其注碼(stakes)不是例行賽可比擬的。例行賽只要代價夠大,輸一場是可以接受的,在季後賽則完全不可能。

在這種高注碼對決下雙方自然帶著短期決戰的想法進行調度,超高強度的消耗下投打呈現又菜又強的二象性:你以為是打得好嗎?其實是投手沒力了;你以為是投得好嗎?說不定打者也快累到揮不動了。這種現象從G3後半段開始不停出現,比賽充斥著大量打上得點圈然後以平凡滾地/飛球出局作收的半局,用另一角度看最後的關鍵得分就是這海量機會中出來少數最後得分的半局。正常是低概率的事件在樣本夠多的情況下概率也許沒想象中低。

再仔細看的話這些高張力的play注碼高得可以說是一個play定勝負,無論結果倒向任何一方球隊勝率都會產生極大變化的那種play。吱爪G2八下領先一分無人出局滿壘和道奇G7九下平手一出局滿壘的局面。只要做錯了就會掉分,掉分就會輸掉這場,輸掉這場就會輸掉系列失去冠軍,這可是萬鈞之重的責任壓在單一個play裡。你是球員的話你會怎樣做呢?照平時的方法去防守,只要不到被記E的程度就好?多看福本伸行的賭博漫畫就知道,當注碼是如此巨大時人們總是為了那一點點「最佳結果」的機率而放手一博--在棒球場上的play也不例外。馬傑森空手接小拋球直傳一壘製造雙殺,Pages跑了123呎暴扣隊友接球,這都是我們平時不會看到的play,卻因為張力夠高而出現。更進一步說,也許大谷的連九上壘也是季後賽才會出現的奇景吧?說不定一直延長的話藍鳥不會IBB而是乾脆正面對決,輸了就算了。

當然一切前提都是球員平時足夠努力,成果才會顯示在賽場上。這些play成功率也許沒想象中難,但一定要有足夠訓練,加上季後賽帶來的額外腎上腺素影響下,流傳後世的各種play才得以一個接一個誕生。最佳的反面例子就是去年洋奇G5,Cole的誰在一壘和法官的抓了個ball可是直接葬送了扳回2-3的希望。事後發現道奇的球探報告早就指出對方依賴天賦而努力不足,只要把球打進場內就能等著看他們的笑話。

我本來沒打算寫太多關於世界大賽的感想的,但是這大概會是近百年最扣人心弦蕩氣迴腸的世界大賽了。論緊湊程度台灣大賽確實比不上,但看了5+7場比賽我只在台灣大賽G2看到胃痛也是事實。我想,這就是在地野球的魅力吧?

不過看著樂天在季中到季後各種亂搞也是挺讓人揪心的。希望會長親自己對面大老闆聊是真的有用吧,唉。

Monday, 3 November 2025

Simon Marais 2025


The tournament was on Oct 11 but I tried not to disclose the problems before I could find them somewhere else on the net. Last year it was quick as someone uploaded part of it to AoPS, but that didn't happen this year. Perhaps it's due to low popularity for the questions posted? I don't know. When I tried to write comments almost 3 weeks later I find it quite difficult when I have forgotten everything.

Welcome to my brief comments 2025 edition. Expect that to be brief, focusing on my thoughts more than the problem/solutions themselves as I tried to wrote everything in like 60 minutes...

A1. A well-received intro question. We don't really need those ordinary computational question, we need questions that truly takes a bit of mathematical essence to solve (but not too much). What is the essence we need for this question?

Growth rate.

Since all functions are positive here (do not matter too much actually), a higher degree polynomial will always outrun lower ones eventually regardless of the coefficients. Since $f = O(x)$, we know that it can only be matched piecewisely by linear functions, but the curve of $x^2$ cannot be reproduced by piecewise linear functions (proof? That's exercise).

A2. Well I am confused here. What do you mean by average? Are you sampling uniformly or what? In that case I think it shouldn't be too hard since matrix like that is all over classic coding theory. I can't give a detailed comment just because I do not bother to delve deeper with the question written so badly.

A3. Wow. At the first glance I thought $A^k$ retains the one row at the bottom -- in that case it should be a straightforward simple induction problem. But fortunately no, this is as hard as an A3 should be. To show that $f,g$ has full distinct real root I tried of Sturm's theorem, but that turns out to be troublesome when you can't even verify if the polynomials are square free. I was so desperate but then I looked at the recurrence relation again: $f_{k+1} = (2+t)f_k - f_{k-1}$

Che...by...shev...?

I remember this guy('s polynomial) only because I wrote about elementary trig limit squeezing one month ago when I tried to expand $\sin nx$, but I am ultra surprised to be able to use that again so soon, just like how I used Galois twice in a row.

More precisely, we can transform the recurrence relation of $f$ into the standard form for Chebyshev polynomial of $T_{n+1} = 2xT_n - T_{n-1}$ with proper initial values. With $T_{k}$ associated with trigonometric function of frequency $\frac{2k+1}{2}$, it is not surprising that it yields full distinct real roots. On the other hand, $g$ can be resolved similarly into another trigonometric expression, then the existence of full distinct real roots plus the ordering is clear immediately.

I wonder if there are other solutions. Chebyshev sounds like too nasty as the only trick forward...

A4. Fourier?!? Everything screams about Fourier approach when it is frequency related. I thought for a while but couldn't come up with a solution in that way, so let's head back to the key element of the problem: finite dimensional space.

Think about the algebraic basis (i.e. allowing infinite linear combination) of $\left\{ 1, x, x^2, ...\right\}$ which we call a Taylor expansion. What if we double the frequency? It sends $x^n \mapsto 2^n x^n$. If a non-polynomial function $g$ admits a Taylor series then the set $\left\{ T^ig \right\}$ *might* have infinite dimension. Of course we would run into the rabbit hole by expanding the *might* argument going through argument involving infinite, so the best approach is to work on the other side instead. That is, to play with finiteness. 

Let $T\in L(V)$ be the frequency doubling operator. We know that $T$ is a bijection. Since $V$ is finite dimensional, $T$ has a matrix representation with respect to a given basis. More importantly we can use Cayley-Hamiltion so that there exists coefficients $c_i$ such that $\sum c_iT^i = 0$. That says for every $g\in V$, $\sum c_iT^ig = \sum c_i g(2^{i-1}x) = 0$. That alone, proves that $g$ has to be a polynomial -- the Taylor series of $g$ solves $c_i$ since $[g]_{V\to V}$ for canonical basis $V$ defines $g$. Using growth rate again one eliminates the tail and confirms the claim.

B1. Surprisingly 'complicated' as a Q1 with how it was worded. For once I thought that it should be possible for all $n$, but more detailed investigation proved otherwise. Focus on the jam when non-coprime numbers are forced to map to the same number. What are the largest possible non-coprime pair given $n$? It should be simple enough from here.

B2. Remember how a triangle is defined by two vectors? Any polygon can be triangulated and decomposed into these vectors. Convexity is important to ensure validity of the triangulation which in this case is given. You don't even need to know much about affine geometry, even simple vector calculus would do.

I wonder why is it not for convex $n$-gon. A quadrilateral is certainly too easy for a Q2. 

B3. Nice problem on linear algebra and complex number. It looks really scary with all the powers, but it's not that bad if you calm down. To me, B1, B2 and B4a (see below) are really manageable, meaning you get 2 hours+ for B3. Even better, there isn't much calculation or bashing -- you realized it's impossible to expand those brackets anyway. Everything is so symmetric and neat, all you need is the right idea.

Since the determinant is zero, there exists a (real) linear combination $\sum c_k (z_j - \omega ^k)^n = 0$ for each $j$. That is, the polynomial $f(z) = \sum c_k (z - \omega ^k)^n$ has $n$ distinct roots $z_i$. Since $f$ is of degree $n$ we know these are all the roots with $\sum c_i \neq 0$, but we need to ensure that $f$ is non-zero.

Suppose $f = 0$. That means the coefficients of $1,x,...,x^{n-1}$ gives $\sum c_k \omega ^{kr} = 0$ for $r = 0,...,n-1$. Notice that this is equivalent to the linear combination of rows in the Vandermonde matrix that sums to zero. Since the Vandermonde matrix is invertible, that means $(c_i) = 0$, a contradiction. 

Now, by factor theorem we conclude that $f(z) = (\sum c_k)\prod (z-z_k)$. Comparing the constant term at $f(0)$ we get $\sum c_k(-\omega ^k)^n = (\sum c_k) \prod (-z_k)$, hence $\prod z_i = 1$. 

See? Almost zero calculation. Grab the essence of linear algebra and you will reach the conclusion easily.

I am actually quite surprised that the root of unity is only used at the Vandermonde argument as well as the vanishing part at the end. Is it possible to generalize this beautiful result? 

B4a. I would rate this at Q2 difficulty, but this is consistent vs past B4a problems.

First of all, $q = 1$ is the trivial case, yet very easy to miss out. After that we look into higher order solutions.

Assume $q \geq 3$. Notice that $(x+1, x^2+1) = 2$, meaning that they do not share any other prime factors. This is extremely powerful because now you know they must contain high prime powers on their own, which is very difficult.

Suppose $(x+1, x^2+1) = 1$, then $x+1 = a^q, x^2+1 = b^q$ for some $(a,b) = 1$. But then we know $(a^2)^q - b^q = a^q$. The difference between two q-th power cannot be that small. Some simple bounding gives the conclusion of no solution. Similarly for the $(x+1, x^2+1) = 2$ we know that $\nu _2(x^2+1) = 1$ by checking mod 8 so all other factors of 2 were on the $x+1$ side, and we get the same conclusion similarly.

b. Well the structure of on the LHS is completely broken in the generalized case. The structure of (a) completely relies on the factorization, or equivalently the factoring or $n+1$. Are there even results that are general across all $n$?

Interestingly (a) didn't ask about the case $q = 2$, but then you realized they didn't forget about that, instead asking that in (b). Perhaps the committee believes that the case for odd $q$ (or simply, $q = 1$ and $q \geq 3$) is enough for 7 marks in Q4a? 

The case $q = 2$ is where you can actually get solution via Pell's equation which is rather standard. One may argue as above that you do not get solution due to wide gap for large $x$, and below the bound there are two solutions $(x,y) = (1,2), (7,20)$.

C1. Oh a partition problem! Not the NP-complete one you would have expected, this partition is very straightforward.

C2. It sounds like the difficult variant of B4 (by the way, the variant of B4 for rational solution sounds really interesting although I believe the answer is still no solution for $q \geq 3$...), but no. This is a monovariant quartic equation. All you need is to check the determinant so this is not very fun. 

A funnier question would be: which one fits better as a Q1 problem, C1 or C2?

C3. Answer must be no right? I'd imagine a very simple expression should the answer be yes. Kind of a typical scope defining question. It should be doable as long as you extract some invariant among all possible angelic expressions. For example the change in slope? For the monovariant case you can define the change in slope by $\lim _{x \to a^-} f'(x) - \lim _{x\to a^+}f'(x)$. For example, the change in slope of $|x|$ is 2 at $x = 0$ and zero everywhere else. This is unchanged by applying any other operations. You may think about $|x|+x = 2\max (0,x)$ but no, the change in slope is still 2 -- don't forget constants and division are not allowed here!

And, we just need to generalize the above to higher dimensional and work very carefully. Perhaps the oscillating measurement $osc(x) = \lim _{r\to 0} \max _{u,v \in B_r(x)} \| \Delta f(u) - \Delta f(v)\|$? I feel like there are lots of traps here, but it's not extremely difficult. 

Still harder than the insulting 24A3 and 23C3 though.

C4. The old skill checking problem is back. 

If this is a question on a convex analysis course, it would have been a standard tutorial or assignment question with answer within 5-10 lines using convex conjugate and infimal convolusion. For those without exposure to convex analysis result? Well, good luck. I have zero idea how to do that without it.

I have exposures to convex analysis because, out of all, I call myself an analysis specialist. I spent time on convex functions from topics related to harmonic functions. On the other hand, I can hardly imagine anyone else, let alone just undergraduates, to run into such topic. Who the hell's going to study convex analysis out of nowhere?!?

***

Man I feel much better about the problems this year. Less fancy but stupid intro questions, more actual problems that are precise and elegant, demanding depth rather than plain bashing. This is also a year without generating function finally lol.

Yet I still feel like something is off. It is so analysis biased, and I am saying that as an analysis guy. Any algebra and probability (other than the so absurd A2)? Any actual calculus? Graph theory, combinatorics and game? I am always amazed by how Putnam comes up with questions with such short description and solution yet so deep that almost no one solves it. Simon Marais is making good progress towards that.

An additional remark about LLM performances. Gemini and GPT managed to solve most of them but both with obvious gaps occasionally. Grok is so messed up even with the ability to cheat (search online). Below are some quick comments about their performances:

A3. The bad habit of assuming pattern is exposed in A3 where they assume something is true after looking at a few lower cases, they can only answer after you instruct them to solve a single specific step -- to solve the recurrence relation of $f_k$ in this problem. 

A4. This is very hard. They can come up with the linear combination $\sum c_i T^i = 0$ but the rest is a huge hurdle. It is not easy to set up an analytical goal then to solve it.

B3. Well done without much problem, guess this is pretty standard.

B4. Similar to A3, easily purged conditions that are far from clear. Only one of them managed to get multiple solutions for $q = 2$.

C3. Unsurprisingly worst of all. Expression type of problem are usually much deeper than how they are defined, and clearly the LLMs are merely scratching the surface. They exhaust obvious cases, but none of them even got close.

C4. Since this is a skill check, if you know the trick then you can solve without problem. Clearly one or two model know the trick, and the rest do not.

What can we learn from the LLM performances? Well, they can calculate and prove quite well, but they really suck at inventing new tools to deal with existing problems. At least up to now.

And that's another year of the tourney! What do you think about the problems? Please tell me with comments below and we will see again in 2026/when answer's out!