Blackout

Reddit blackout. Not the first time, probably not the last time. There has been enough resources on the Internet that I don't need to cover the details(for example this). Here is my observations though. 

Causes

It is not the first time that we see severe disruption of some well-founded communities. Tumblr change in policies is one, Twitter charging more on API -- the same as Reddit -- is another. We all know what happened when Elon started charging on that: all those fun little bots just went down without causing a splash. But when it comes to Reddit it turned out to be a huge protest. Why?

These platforms are different from one to other. For Reddit it's a collection of niche communities under separate moderation. That says, it's a labor intensive work (before AI rules the work), relying on all the volunteered work, so users have a bigger say on these matters unlike other platforms like Twitter.

Then there comes the disastrous AMA of Spez. Internet users -- those relatively geeker side but not as 4chan let's say -- are funny creatures. When you anger them in ways like that the power in mass can always cause unexpected outcome. We thought 'some' of the big subs would blackout, but we ended up in like ~8350 out of 8800 closed. That is why you shouldn't trigger internet user bases.

Execution

I truly believe that some subs weren't prepared to shut down but did so due to the pressure or messages flooded by people who keep tracking the reddark list(which definitely fueled the thing by quite a lot). A number of subs that I visit only started internal discussions on late 11th or even midday 12th. I can't say if this is a good thing, but when I check those subs when re-opened the users weren't too upset.

What's also interesting is the subs that remained open. They divided into four categories:

1) With very solid reason to stay open: health and tech support, Ukraine, Oakland A's(for their protest against A's moving out, but how did they win with Fujinami started?!?) and so on. They can remain open and no one would blame them.

2) Not private or restricted but protested in their own way: r/photoshopbattles only allowing black photos and r/AdviceAnimals only allowing protest related memes. Their actions are also respected, although reddark number crunchers may not be happy with those not counted towards subs in black.

3) Moderators failed to go private or restricted due to activity(?). Not sure but a few of them claimed to be that. If true people would understand not complaining.

4) Completely ignoring the protest and made no remarks on the matter. Three big ones that I can immediately name are r/cryptocurrency, r/AbsoluteUnits (wtf is this btw) and r/CozyPlaces. Shame is the only thing I could say.

It's quite hard to pinpoint what causes the sub to make such decision. Some could be profit-driven (cryptos). Some subs have themes that drive them away from reality (CozyPlaces) in particular that their willingness to participate would be lower. For smaller subs there are always chances of getting mods uninterested in the matter, so it's just a matter of chance. After all, the amount of subs that went dark is impressive.

Aftermath

So, what next?

It's leaked that Spez responded in internal meetings saying that it will be over. 

First of all this is inappropriate and will further trigger redditors, but this is also true in the sense that protests like this won't hurt in long run. Some subs even the huge ones are already planning an extended restriction. This is a good step but I believe the management will act decisively if there is a trend of protests turning into a long term one. 

It is likely that protests will die down eventually and the API pricing will kick in on time. But the protest will be the starting point of a period of unrest, then a long and painful decay...just like a star dropping out from the main sequence.

They can replace mods as they want, but new mods could still support the movement and it's not really easy to find respected figures in the sub that can do the job fine as before (just imagine being accused as traitors). And you have to do that for all subs, or at least the big ones at least, still hundreds of them. The number of subs makes it impossible for Reddit to turn that into a paid job: they have just announce a laid off even! With moderation quality drops we see users leaving the subs and Reddit as a whole. This is bound to happen gradually. Reddit is unique, but not irreplaceable. Discord will be a temporarily shelter, but I anticipate a similar open-to-public forum like platform that serves the role of Reddit in the future.

*

Three remarks at the end:

- Spez...I almost called him Shez every time. 

- The remark of r/pcmasterrace. They made a detail list on why Reddit's announcement on API lacks all the detail that users, moderators and third party devs wanted to know (and not answered on AMA) so it's worth a peek. They also mentioned about the API use of crawling Reddit for AI training, something I had not thought of but is in fact a concern, given that Reddit has been a prime source feeding into the GPT training.

- The subs that I visit often, a sample of subs that I can look into in detail: r/FireEmblemHeroes is closed by Embla which no one complained other than they wanted to use her more out of chaos season; r/soccer seems to support the blackout almost unanimously even for the indefinite blackout which is a huge contrast against another sub based on a soccer comic/anime...with zero interest to partcipate at all.